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It may just be me, but aren't the credit rating agencies supposed to be rating credit?
Yesterday, we saw a sharp market reaction when one of the rating agencies that gave AAA ratings to mortgage-backed securities larded with subprime loans called into question the credit worthiness of Britain. As is the case with the United States and the Federal Reserve, Britain and its Bank of England have the ability to create new money if necessary to pay off its debt at maturity. There is no sovereign credit risk. There is no need for credit rating agencies to opine on the credit worthiness of sovereign debt.
Sovereign debt is subject to interest rate risk. When interest rates in general rise, outstanding bonds, sovereign and non-sovereign, will decline in price, the extent depending on how close they are to maturity.
Sovereign debt is also subject to inflation risk. Holders of the debt are harmed if inflation outpaces their expectations when they purchased the debt.
When Standard & Poor questions British bonds, they must be making a judgment about some risk other than credit risk. Given time, investors will learn to take such questions with a grain of salt and not overreact. Meanwhile, haven't they done enough harm for this cycle?
June 15th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
Bob, you should read Reinhart and Rogoff’s “This Time is Different…Eight Centuries of Financial Crises”. Of course sovereigns have credit risk; countries default, on domestic and external debt. England, the country in question, has three defaults, the most recent only 400 years ago. Russia could have printed its way out of its GKO problem, but chose to default instead; Argentina also did so on peso-denominated debt. It is not just an ancient-history or Emerging Market problem, though: much of the developed world went into default in the Great Depression.
February 23rd, 2010 at 8:12 am
[...] February 23, 2010 Bob McTeer, former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas spells it out real simple, like: Yesterday, we saw a sharp market reaction when one of the rating agencies that gave AAA [...]
February 23rd, 2010 at 8:15 am
Er, David–we aren’t on the gold standard any more!