Financial TV is full of talk about Governor Warsh’s opinion piece in Friday’s Wall Street Journal. One theory is that it was a shot across Chairman Bernanke’s bow. I doubt it, but even if it was in some limited sense, my experience on the FOMC for almost 14 years suggests to me that the following probably happened. Governor Warsh wrote the piece, then showed it to Chairman Bernanke and asked if he was okay with submitting it to the WSJ. Whatever the Chairman really thought down deep, he probably said “That’s okay with me. Go ahead.” This, of course, is only a guess, but an educated guess.

The timing was odd, however, and awkward, for the Governor since it was so soon after an FOMC meeting in which he didn’t dissent. It looks like he’s trying to have it both ways. Of course, it’s always possible that he and the Chairman together are trying to have it both ways.

Read the rest of this entry »

“You can’t spend your way out of recession” is a sound bite heard almost every day on financial TV. Recently a guest commentator combined that sound bite with this one: “You can’t borrow your way out of debt.” Perhaps the second one was intended to divert our attention from the first one. Clever. Perhaps too clever by half.

Of course you can spend your way out of recession, almost by definition. A recession can be defined as a shrinkage of spending and income. More spending is needed to generate more income. Therefore, more spending will do the job.

Read the rest of this entry »

I try to keep up, but occasionally it dawns on me that I’ve been missing something. The latest example is the importance being placed on G-20 meetings. I wake up to find that there is to be a debate in Pittsburg on such matters as how much the respective governments should restrict banker pay packages. Apparently, we plan to crack down, but not as much as most others. There will be a debate.

What’s going on here? It’s not just that the debate will be over different degrees of government intervention into areas of business not normally under government jurisdiction. More scary is the idea that we might be morally bound, or even influenced, in such matters by the other 19. I didn’t get to vote for those guys. How did they get a vote on my banker’s pay?

Read the rest of this entry »

(Old Bones for the Week-end)

When I was president of the Dallas Fed (1991-2004), I frequently spoke to the graduates of our rank-and-file training programs. I just ran across the following summary outline someone made of my remarks on such an occasion in February 2002. Maybe you can use my suggestions on your kiddos. Commenters may want to add their own favorites to the list.

1. Plan your life on paper. Where would you like to be in your career in 5 years?  10 years?

2. Do a time line.

3. Write out your goals, objectives and ambitions. Be very specific and detailed.

4. Translate your goals into activities and schedule those activities on your calendar. Write your to-do lists with your goals in mind.

Read the rest of this entry »

Why can’t we learn even the most obvious lessons from the Great Depression? Many policy mistakes were made then, but perhaps the biggest and most destructive was the Smoot-Hawley tariff that contributed to a world-wide trade war and the reinforcement of the depression’s downward spiral. We’ve already dissed our Mexican neighbors by abrogating the trucking provisions of NAFTA. Do we really want to have a tire war with China to pander to domestic unions? The Chrysler bond holders would probably have an opinion on that.

Read the rest of this entry »

Written on the bathroom wall at a Libertarian convention in France in July 2001:  “Defy Authority!”

 Next day below that:  “Who are you to tell me what to do?” 

The Tobin Tax came up on financial TV the other day. It brought back memories.

I gave the keynote address at a conference in Dax, France  in 2001, celebrating the 200th anniversary of the birth of Frederic Bastiat, most easily described as the French Adam Smith. The conference was by Le Cercle Frederic Bastiat and was sponsored by the International Society for Individual Liberty and Libertarian International. I titled my remarks, Why Bastiat is My Hero.

Read the rest of this entry »

(A More Realistic Look)

This is the year that the whole world apparently discovered the importance of the Fed's Balance Sheet. Unfortunately, their discovery was made when it suddenly doubled in the context of a severe financial panic. This is awful! Right? We've got to get it back down to size! Right?

The suddenness of these revelations prevented useful perspective on why the balance sheet is important and why the composition of the balance sheet is just as important as the size. Money and banking text books for decades have discussed the Fed's balance sheet in the context of bank reserves and the Fed has for decades provided a statistical release on "Factors Affecting Reserves."

Read the rest of this entry »

(And They Called Supply-Side Voodoo)

The only really sensible investment advice I know of came from Will Rogers, who is alleged to have said:

"You buy your stock.
When it goes up, sell it.
If it don't go up, don't buy it."

Advice I just don't get includes the following:

People are very optimistic; so stocks will decline.

People are pessimistic; it's a good buying opportunity.

Stocks go down in September and October.

You can't beat the market; it's all priced in.

You've got to do your homework.

Go with the momentum.

The Dow is 5½ points below Fair Value.

Sell in May and go away.

Cash is king; stay liquid.

If you're out of the market a few days, you can miss the run-up.

The trend is your friend.

It's a random walk.

(The Glass is Half Full; not Half Empty)

The good news that employment declined less in August than in previous months is more important than the bad news of the rise in the unemployment rate. As I've noted here previously, the unemployment rate (from the household survey) had not kept up with employment losses and a convergence was over due. It should not be considered new bad news. The unemployment rate will rise further, even if employment losses continue to decline. One reason is that discouraged workers will come into the labor force as their perceived prospects improve. Keep your eye on employment rather than unemployment as a measure of how the economy is doing.

When I was in graduate school in the olden days (1960s), Professor Waller hired me as his grader in his money and banking and monetary policy classes. At first, he limited my chores to multiple-choice and true-false questions, but he gradually trusted me with essay questions-following his strict guidelines of course.

"Are budget deficits inflationary?" was one of his favorite questions on final exams, and he had a precise idea of the components of an "A" answer. Using T-Accounts (Remember the Chicago Fed's Modern Money Mechanics booklet?), the students were supposed to show the alternate ways of financing government spending, including deficits. The answer to the question, you see, depended almost entirely on the method of financing. Another way of saying that is that the impact of fiscal policy depended almost entirely on the accompanying monetary policy.

Read the rest of this entry »